A Hard Rain’s A Gonna Fall:

How Social Impact Leaders Are Using Data To Survive-

and Win!

Ori Carmel, CEO, Sowen

Let’s get real- Not everyone’s going to make it. In fact, some organizations in the social impact space—nonprofits, CSR programs, foundations, research centers—are already dead in the water.

Some of them know it, and others don’t. Many are spending their time in strategy meetings with haunted eyes and low reserves, trying to fundraise on fumes. Others? Still writing optimistic blog posts, or angry blog posts, or worse-  chasing awards for programs that no longer have traction.

Here’s the brutal, quiet truth: not every organization should survive this storm.

The social impact space is filled with incredible people, talented subject matter experts, and genuine benevolence. It is also filled with shocking inefficiencies, political silos, and infuriating habits of “falling in love with the problem” and “letting perfect be the enemy of good”. And while that’s hard to swallow, it also opens the door to a better question: What would it take for the right organizations to come out stronger on the other side?

That’s what we should be asking. That’s what pragmatic idealists are actually worried about. That’s what I want to talk about here.

How We Got Here (Without the Politics)

Let’s strip away the partisan noise and look at the facts. The current environment—regardless of your stance—has fundamentally altered the playing field for social impact work across all sectors:

• Federal funding cuts across community development, family planning, arts and humanities, international aid, and climate action.

• Regulatory rollbacks on DEI, LGBTQ+ services, and civil rights.

• Tax shifts that strain donor behavior, especially among middle-income households.

• Economic instability—inflation, AI-driven workforce disruption, post-pandemic volatility.

• Cultural backlash against “woke” language, equity efforts, and ESG mandates.

Taken together, it’s a systemic shock to a sector that, frankly, wasn’t built for resilience in the first place.

The result? We estimate that 20–25% of social impact organizations may shut down, merge, or lose critical capacity by 2028. And that’s the conservative read.

The Vacuum Is Coming

Physics 101: nature abhors a vacuum. When one forms, it gets filled—fast.

The same applies here. As organizations shrink, shutter, or implode, the need they once served doesn’t disappear. It just migrates. And so does the opportunity. Some of that vacuum will be filled through consolidation. Large, well-capitalized players will swallow smaller ones. In other cases, new actors—born from this pressure—will emerge with sharper focus, smarter strategy, and stronger alignment to the moment.

The worst-case scenario? The vacuum doesn't get filled at all. The ecosystem shrinks into a social impact black hole. Less support, more inequity, and a slow erosion of public trust. If we care about the long-term health of the sector, that’s the future we have to fight against.

We Let This Happen

Here’s a hard but necessary reflection: the sector didn’t just fall victim to external shocks—we built the glasshouse ourselves. We tolerated fluffy metrics and feel-good reports that no CFO or policymaker would take seriously. We promoted excellent junior staff to strategic leadership positions with no structure, support, or real training on how to run a team or organisation. 

We built parallel empires of theory and practice that refused to talk to one another. We prioritized academic perfection over messy progress, intellectual elitism over operational excellence, and performative equity over real structural change.

Now, the bill is due. This isn’t about blame—it’s about responsibility. And a chance to get it right.

What Smart Leaders Are Doing Now

At Sowen, we’ve spent the last year partnering with philanthropic, corporate, and nonprofit leaders who refuse to wait for rescue. They’re not just trying to survive the next few years—they’re positioning to win in what comes next.

Here’s what they’re doing differently:

1. Risk Isn’t the Enemy. It’s the Map.

We’ve built composite models to quantify organizational risk, drawing from public data (like NFF’s 2024 State of the Sector Survey), administrative trends, and Sowen’s own 2025 Social Impact Report. It’s not about predicting the future. It’s about knowing which parts of your strategy are on fire, which are stable, and which are worth doubling down on.

2. Scenario Planning Over Certainty Theater

Ignore the gurus promising deterministic clarity. The future is unknowable. But you can plan for three futures: one great, one terrible, one plausible. Build contingencies, not fantasies. This is how grown-up organizations prepare.

 3. Time-Aligned Goals

Not every goal is created equal—or achievable on the same timeline. Leaders are revisiting their goals and aligning them to short-, mid-, and long-term realities. This sets expectations and frees up the right resources for the right timeframe.

4. Do Fewer Things—Really Well

Most orgs have bloated portfolios. We help leaders identify the 20% of programs driving 80% of their outcomes—and refocus on doing those with discipline. Cut noise. Build muscle.

5. Diversify Revenue Like You Mean It

You wouldn’t put your entire retirement fund in one stock. Why do it with your mission? Smart orgs are building diverse, balanced revenue portfolios—earned, awarded, owned—so they don’t live and die by one grant cycle or gala.

6. Coalitions, Not Silos

It’s time to put down the ego and pick up the phone. Cross-sector partnerships, even with frenemies, are how meaningful change scales. Coalitions move faster than soloists. Even if your last Zoom call was painful.

7. Operational Modernization Isn’t Optional

This is the era of real-time insight and automated workflows. Leaders are ditching legacy tools, bad data habits, and gut-based decision-making in favor of leaner, sharper systems. Faster orgs aren’t just better—they’re harder to kill.

8. Impact Measurement That Holds Up in Court

Vanity metrics are dead. So is "check-the-box" ESG. The orgs that will thrive are using relevant, real-time data to tell credible stories about the change they create. Funders notice. So do policymakers. So does your next hire.

Survival Is Not the Goal

Let’s be clear: we’re not just here to make it through the storm. We’re here to grow stronger because of it. In a collapsing market, power dynamics shift. Gaps open. New leaders emerge. What separates the ones who thrive from the ones who vanish is simple:

• Their ability to define risk.

• Their discipline to act with focus.

• Their courage to measure what matters.

To a large degree, the next few months are about market share, and what organizations and leaders are going to do to make sure they are here when the dust settles. Look around. One in five won’t make it. Another 60% will claw their way through.

But 20% will come out smarter, leaner, and more effective than ever before. And they will do it by being better, smarter, faster, and more effective at using their data to make strategic decisions.

The storm is real. The opportunity is realer. Where do you want to be when the skies clear?